Page 87 - CO April 2017 Full Issue

URBANIA update India’s Urbane Surge A rapidly expanding manufacturing sector, fuelled further off late by the ‘Make in India’ charge, is spawning new industrial and commercial hubs in Tier II & Tier III cities across India. This has prompted mass migration of labor to urban areas from rural India. The urban population in India currently totals around 410 million people (32 per cent of the total population) and is projected at 814 million (50 per cent) by 2050. This urban surge in population is throwing up its own challenges, which range from economic land-use, to affordable housing, to Green construction. India’s urban population is projected to real estate developers. According to the latest Te costs of providing public infrastructure reach 590 million in 2030, according to research from the New Climate Economy, and services are likely to be as much as 30 per CNN, up from 340 million in 2008. It “Better, smarter urban growth could be an cent higher in more sprawled, automobile- cited a 2010 McKinsey comment that economic opportunity for India worth up dependent neighborhoods compared India will “have to build the equivalent of to 6 per cent of GDP by 2050. Continuing with more compact, connected locations. one Mumbai of commercial and residential the current poorly planned, sprawling, Te ‘High Power Expert Committee for space every year to keep up.” unconnected pattern of urbanisation could Estimating the Investment Requirements The latest Economic Survey by the impose an estimated cost of between $330 for Urban Infrastructure Services’ report government fnds that about 377 million billion and $1.8 trillion by mid-century. At views urban infrastructure opportunity in people from India’s total population of the household level, this equates to more India to amount to $640 billion, and the 1.21 billion are urban dwellers. With over than 20 per cent of average household funding gap for infrastructure in India 10 million people migrating to cities and incomes.” Te research is being launched to amount to $100 billion up to 2030. towns every year, the total urban population in New Delhi by Lord Nicholas Stern and Te programmes will enable the private is projected at about 600 million by 2031. Naina Lal Kidwai (recently ex- Chairman- sector to help support the Government in Tis has accelerated the rate of urbanisation HSBC Holdings Plc.’s India, & Executive infrastructure development – which is a rapidly — between 2015 and 2031, the pace Director —Board of HSBC Asia Pacifc), priority considering the inadequate and of urbanisation is projected to increase at a as members of the Global Commission on crippling infrastructure that is rampant compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) the Economy and Climate. across Indian cities. of 2.1 per cent, which is estimated to be Te new paper pioneers a frst-of-its-kind almost double of China’s growth rate. analysis drawing on satellite data of night- Major Challenges "Urbanisation is an irreversible trend. time lights to compare cities’ urban form 14 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities Rather than viewing it as an evil, we have with their economic growth. It fnds that are in India, and outdoor air pollution in to make it an integral part of our policy Indian cities that were more compact in Indian cities is estimated to cause around for development. Urbanisation has to be 2002 experienced faster economic growth 1.1 million premature deaths per year. viewed as an opportunity to use modern from 2002-2012. On average across a India also has the largest number of total technology to create a wholesome and sample of 479 Indian cities, a 10 per cent trafc deaths of any country: 137,572 were secure habitat while reaping the economic increase in a city’s dispersion index in ofcially reported in 2013. benefits that it offers." 2002 was associated with a 0.4-0.9 per In India, urban sprawl is diferent than in Cabinet Resolution on creation of NITI cent point decrease in economic growth other countries; it is best understood as Aayog over the subsequent period. Te report also a low density of built-up foor space per underlines a number of negative impacts unit of land area, combined with severe Te Urban Pie or costs associated with India’s current overcrowding per unit of built-up area. For While the funding required for building and urbanisation model, ranging from increased example, Mumbai homes have only about 30 managing the urban infrastructure required costs of providing public infrastructure square feet per person, less than a quarter of to manage this surging urban population is and services, transportation costs, trafc the comparable availability in urban China. enormous, it can be seen as a huge business casualties, trafc congestion, air pollution, Countering urban sprawl in India will opportunity for major EPC contractors and and health risks, among other considerations. require a greater emphasis on “appropriate” APRIL 2017 |construction opportunities 89